Manifest 2025
A festival for forecasts, markets, and novel ideas.
Hosted by Manifold and Manifund.
June 6–8 · Lighthaven, Berkeley, CaliforniaNotable Guests
They told us they're coming - bet on whether they will!
Nate Silver
Statistician & writer of Silver Bulletin
Scott Alexander
Psychiatrist & writer of Astral Codex Ten
Michael Lewis
Bestselling author of The Big Short & Moneyball
Chris Best
Cofounder & CEO of Substack
Robin Hanson
Economist & professor
Noah Smith
Economist & writer of Noahpinion
Emmett Shear
CEO of Softmax, Cofounder of Twitch
Byrne Hobart
Writer of The Diff
Aella
Sex researcher & writer of Knowingless
Patrick McKenzie
Writer of Bits About Money
Joe Carlsmith
Senior researcher at Open Philanthropy
Allison Duettmann
President & CEO of the Foresight Institute
Stephen Grugett
CEO & Cofounder of Manifold
Roon
OpenAI, online @tszzl
David Shor
Political forecaster, Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research
Laura Deming
CEO of Cradle
Plus good odds on:
Ajeya Cotra
Cremieux
Danielle Fong
Dave White
David Holt
Dylan Matthews
Dylan Patel
Eoghan McCabe
Isabel Juniewicz
Jay Baxter
Kevin Roose
Kyle Schiller
Lincoln Quirk
Mike Solana
Mike Yao
Noam Brown
Nuño Sempere
Richard Hanania
Rob Miles
Samo Burja
Samuel Hammond
Scott Sumner
Steve Hsu
Tracing Woodgrains
Sponsors
headline
platinum
gold
silver
Want to sponsor Manifest 2025?
Take a look at our sponsor prospectus!
Rave Reviews
"The Manifest conference has been a successful experiment: put enough introverts with common interests into a confined space and they'll spontaneously turn into extroverts."
— Byrne Hobart
"For much of my life, I have poured my attention into tough-to-explain solitary pursuits, finding myself often sitting in quiet corners on the fringes of gatherings wondering if they're worth the effort. Not so last weekend."
— TracingWoodgrains
"It's hard to describe the vibe at Manifest unless you were there. But it was part Burning Man, part prediction market science fair, part middle school talent show. It was utterly delightful."
— Devansh Mehta
Gallery
Manifest Night Market
Friday, June 6 · 7–10 PM @ Lighthaven 🌙
Free and open to the community
The Night Market is back for the third year! An open-air evening celebration of all things markets. It's a chance to meet people, share ideas, see strange gadgets, and wander around in a transcendent twilight. A Very Bay Area World's Fair and a fun attempt to manifest the futures.
Previous markets included but not limited to:
- Job market: trade your skills for other skills, or find your next gig
- Stuff market: arts, crafts, foods
- Experience market: mini games, fortunes
- Book market: got a book? essay? poem?
- Information market: like a poster session, without the standards
- Black market: naming rights to a baby's middle name, 'probiotics', etc
Frequently Asked Questions
Contact the Team
David Chee
Head Organiser
david@manifest.is
Rachel
Lead Organiser
rach@manifest.is
Austin Chen
Advisor
austin@manifest.is
Join the Discord!