- Reforming Academia via Reputation FuturesRobin Hanson
- What Is Aristotle’s Metaphysics About?Arnold Brooks
- Press X to Doubt: Journalism EditionPatrick McKenzie
- Humanist vs. Science/Tech CultureAgnes Callard & Robin Hanson
- Forecasting AI Risks: Anthropic’s Responsible Scaling PolicyBen Mann
- How Do We Solve the Alignment Problem?Joe Carlsmith
- Data Science & PoliticsDavid Shor
- Predicting Large-Scale CatastrophesNuño Sempere
- Learning to Reason with LLMsNoam Brown
- Forecasting Transformative AI Using the Book of RevelationNoam Brown & Scott Alexander
- The Mechanism Design of Deficit Spending and Interest RatesScott Alexander & Noahpinion
2026 Speakers & Guests
Confirmed speakers
& ticket holders; click any odds bar to place your bet.
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What is Manifest?
Manifest started in 2023 as a festival about prediction markets and forecasting; it has since become an annual excuse to treat curiosity as a serious hobby — long conversations, unfinished arguments, bets, and the company of writers, researchers, and builders you admire from your favorite niche corners of the internet.
“Equal parts Math Olympiad and Burning Man” — a gathering of nerds who want to find the thinkers and practitioners they vehemently agree (and disagree) with, share a meal around a cozy campfire, and come away with radically new ways of thinking.
What sorts of things happen at Manifest?
Talks, panels, debates, workshops, games, prediction market tournaments, a night market, career fair, and much more. Much of the schedule comes from attendee-led sessions.
- Fine-Tuning, the Multiverse, Anthropic Bias, and the Reference-Class Problem
- Matt Buckley: How to Change Your Mind (with Replacement Therapies)
- History Lecture with Live Betting
- SuperMemo & Incremental Reading
- Intro to Quantitative Portfolio Construction
- Ricki Heicklen: Intro to Trading
- Founder of Upstart, Paul Gu
- Nate Silver & Scott Alexander
- Manifold Founder, Stephen Grugett & Theo Jaffee
- AI 2027 Q&A, Eli Lifland
- Ajeya Cotra
- Kalshi Co-Founder, Luana Lopes Lara
- Substack CEO, Chris Best
- David Shor & Jesse Richardson
- Speedfriending
- Dance Class with Aella
- Experimental Meditation Experiments
- Memory Systems / Anki / SRS Meetup
- Similarities Between Selling to Nation States and on Facebook Marketplace
- The Case for Interactionist Dualism
- Futurist Theory of Traditionalism
- Fun Etymology
Opening Night · Free & Public
The Night Market
On Friday, the first night of Manifest, Lighthaven will be open and free to the public for our Career Fair & Night Market. An open-air evening celebration of all things markets; it’s a chance to meet people, share ideas, see strange gadgets, and wander around in a transcendent twilight…
No ticket required- Job Market
- Trade your skills for other skills, or find your next gig
- Experience Market
- Mini games, fortunes, and digital interactions
- Information Market
- Like a poster session, but without the academic standards
- Stuff Market
- Arts, crafts, and locally crafted foods
- Book Market
- Got a book? Essay? Poem? Share your physical prints
- Black Market
- Naming rights to a baby’s middle name, ‘probiotics’, etc.
Tales from Festivalgoers
I met many well-known figures I’ve been reading for years. Where else will you meet multiple people within 24 hours who casually mentioned the short story Funes the Memorious in conversation?
I love Manifest. My subsidy provided for swaying bauble lights, warm soporific nooks, flames and corridors, souls brought to Earth together, eyes lighting up at their electric worlds made real.
Gwern came to my talk and told me at the end “I disagree with everything you said and your entire theory of aesthetics is wrong.” lol
It bills itself as “a festival for forecasting and prediction markets,” which fails to capture the spirit — it’s more like “Substack and Twitter live”, a festival-conference-party-Burning-Man for nerds with many interests.
The Manifest conference has been a successful experiment: put enough introverts with common interests into a confined space and they’ll spontaneously turn into extroverts.
For much of my life, I have poured my attention into tough-to-explain solitary pursuits, sitting in quiet corners on the fringes of gatherings wondering if they’re worth the effort. Not so last weekend.
Past Sponsors
Frequently Asked
- 01Where is Manifest happening?
- Lighthaven, 2740 Telegraph Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94705.
- 02Can I purchase accommodation?
- Yes. Our venue, Lighthaven, has a limited number of rooms available for ticketholders — book directly through Lighthaven. Space fills up quickly, so most attendees will need to find other accommodations nearby.
- 03When does Manifest start and end?
- We’re still finalizing the schedule. In 2025, the festival opened doors on Friday at 2pm, held opening ceremony from 5:15-6pm. In 2025, the closing ceremony was Sunday 6-6:45pm, though events and informal gatherings continue into the night.
- 04How many people will be at Manifest?
- We are expecting about 600-700 attendees over the course of the weekend.
- 05What does my ticket include?
- Access to the festival from Fri afternoon through Sunday night, including all meals.
- 06Can I bring my kids?
- We’d love for you to bring your kids! Please fill out this Child Attendance Form. Children 10 and under don’t need tickets. And we offer free onsite childcare! To help us plan the event, please fill out the form whether or not you need childcare.
- 07How does volunteering work?
- Volunteers get to buy for a reduced-price ticket in exchange for working shifts (at least 3x 4+ hr shifts) during the event. Once all shifts are completed, volunteers are eligible for a full refund. Email volunteers@manifest.is with questions.
- 08What if I need financial assistance to attend?
- We don’t want finances to keep anyone from attending. If the volunteer shift requirement or deposit is a barrier, fill out our Low-Income Ticket Form, or reach out to team@manifest.is.
- 09What is your refund policy?
- Full refunds are available up to 7 days before the event. Contact team@manifest.is to request one.
Organizers:
Questions? Please reach out.