MaNifest
2024

June 7th to 9th, 2024

Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA

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What is Manifest?

A festival for forecasting and prediction markets, hosted by Manifold and Manifund.
Learn more →

Manifest 2023

The inaugural Manifest was held in September last year. 250 attendees spent a weekend hanging out, running talks and workshops, insider trading, and doing other prediction market shenanigans.

"manifest conference was so fun 10/10 recommend"
- Aella
“The vibes were immaculate. I was actively excited by easily 70% of the talks and side conversations. Fantastic.”
- Molly H
“I think this is the first festival (of very many total) I've attended that has made me feel genuinely sad afterwards that it has ended.”
- Richard K
“It's like I walked through the wardrobe into Narnia for years, and now that I've left it was somehow no time at all.”
- Joshua F

PLUS: Summer camp

Manifest 2024 will bring back the things people raved about last year — the beautiful venue, the strong community, the engaging talks — with one extra twist:

We're hosting Manifest Summer Camp in the week leading up to the main event, Jun 3 - Jun 7. By day, cowork and collaborate; by night, join fireside chats, karaoke, games, popups and more. All of this directly at the world's coziest venue, Lighthaven!

The Lightcone team is also planning LessOnline, an unconference centered around rationalist bloggers and their ideas, the weekend prior.

So book your flights & lodging with room to spare; we'll see you at camp~

Fri, May 31
Sat, Jun 1
LessOnline
Sun, Jun 2
Mon, Jun 3
Tue, Jun 4
Wed, Jun 5
Summer
Camp
Thu, Jun 6
Fri, Jun 7
Sat, Jun 8
Sun, Jun 9
Manifest

Special Guests

Nate Silver
Statistician & writer of Silver Bulletin
Luana Lopes Lara
Cofounder of
Kalshi
Robin Hanson
Economist & professor
Scott Alexander
Psychiatrist & writer of Astral Codex Ten
Niraek Jain-sharma
Head of Data at
Polymarket
Byrne Hobart
Writer of The Diff
Aella
Sex researcher & writer of Knowingless
Dwarkesh Patel
Host of the
Dwarkesh Podcast
Patrick McKenzie
Writer of
Bits About Money
Chris Best
Cofounder & CEO of
Substack
Ben Mann
Cofounder of Anthropic
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Researcher at MIRI
Cate Hall
Executive director
of Astera
Paul Gu
Cofounder of Upstart
John Phillips
Cofounder & CEO of
PredictIt
Allison Duettmann
President & CEO of
the Foresight Institute
Dan Schwarz
Cofounder & CEO of
FutureSearch
Alex Gajewski
Cofounder & CEO of SF Compute
Katja Grace
Lead Researcher of AI Impacts
Kelsey Piper
Senior writer for
Future Perfect, Vox
Steve Hsu
Physics professor &
host of Manifold Podcast
Agnes Callard
Philosophy professor
Joe Carlsmith
Senior Research Analyst at Open Philanthropy
Daniel Reeves
Cofounder & CEO of Beeminder
Misha Glouberman
Executive coach, author, event runner
Ajeya Cotra
Senior Program Officer
at OpenPhil
Clara Collier
Editor in Chief of
Asterisk
Samo Burja
President of
Bismark Analysis
Stephen Grugett
Cofounder of Manifold
James Grugett
Cofounder of Manifold
And: Javier Prieto, Simone & Malcolm Collins, Jay Baxter, Tracing Woodgrains, Razib Khan, Max Tabarrok, Brian Chau, Gene Smith, Gavriel Kleinwaks, Niko McCarty, Xander Balwit, Jeremiah Johnson, Ozzie Gooen, Danny Halawi, Regan Arntz-Gray, Sarah Constantin, Frank Lantz, Will Jarvis, Stuart Buck, Jonathan Anomaly, Evan Miyazono, Rob Miles, Richard Hanania, Nate Soares, Holly Elmore, Josh Morrison, Deger Turan...

and more!
See last year's speakers

Our sponsors

Featuring: Niraek Jain-sharma
Featuring: Luana Lopes Lara, Adhi Rajaprabhakaran, Terry Oldreal,
Luis Usier, Brandon Beckhardt & Noah Sternig
And our supporters: Barak Gila, Dean Valentine, Oleg Eterevsky, Anton Makiievsky, Nate Soares, Anil Jason, Rif Saruous, Ravi Parikh, Andrey Anurin, Jeff Tamer, Natalie Vershov, and Nikolai Yakovenko.

Our Team

Rachel Weinberg
Cofounder & SWE at Manifund
Saul Munn
Cofounder of OPTIC, Operations at Manifund
Austin Chen
Cofounder & CEO of Manifund; Cofounder of Manifold

Contact

Want to sponsor Manifest? Schedule a meeting with Saul here, or email him at saul@manifest.is. Take a look at our pricing & perks here!

Want to speak at Manifest? Great news! Manifest is a collaborative festival — you'll be able to run your own side-session(s) on whatever you'd like. If you're interested in giving a more central talk, please email saul@manifest.is.

Want to stay in the loop on Manifest? Follow us on twitter, or join Manifold's newsletter below.
For any other questions, join us on Discord!