Manifest 2025

A festival for forecasts, markets, and novel ideas.

Hosted by Manifold and Manifund.

June 6–8 · Lighthaven, Berkeley, California

Notable Guests

(They told us they're coming - bet on whether they will!)

Nate Silver

Nate Silver

Statistician & writer of Silver Bulletin

94%
Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander

Psychiatrist & writer of Astral Codex Ten

96%
Michael Lewis

Michael Lewis

Bestselling author of The Big Short & Moneyball

94%
Chris Best

Chris Best

Cofounder & CEO of Substack

96%
Robin Hanson

Robin Hanson

Economist & professor

94%
Noah Smith

Noah Smith

Economist & writer of Noahpinion

94%
Emmett Shear

Emmett Shear

CEO of Softmax, Cofounder of Twitch

93%
Byrne Hobart

Byrne Hobart

Writer of The Diff

93%
Aella

Aella

Sex researcher & writer of Knowingless

97%
Patrick McKenzie

Patrick McKenzie

Writer of Bits About Money

96%
Joe Carlsmith

Joe Carlsmith

Senior researcher at Open Philanthropy

90%
Allison Duettmann

Allison Duettmann

President & CEO of the Foresight Institute

94%
Stephen Grugett

Stephen Grugett

CEO & Cofounder of Manifold

98%
Roon

Roon

OpenAI, online @tszzl

92%
David Shor

David Shor

Political forecaster, Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research

96%
Laura Deming

Laura Deming

Longevity Venture Capitalist

96%

Sponsors

headline

Polymarket

platinum

Substack

gold

Sovereign

silver

Elicit

Rave Reviews

Rachel Substack quote about Manifest
Theo Substack quote about Manifest
Cremiuex Substack quote about Manifest
Benthams Substack quote about Manifest

"The Manifest conference has been a successful experiment: put enough introverts with common interests into a confined space and they'll spontaneously turn into extroverts." — Byrne Hobart

"For much of my life, I have poured my attention into tough-to-explain solitary pursuits, finding myself often sitting in quiet corners on the fringes of gatherings wondering if they're worth the effort. Not so last weekend." — TracingWoodgrains

"It's hard to describe the vibe at Manifest unless you were there. But it was part Burning Man, part prediction market science fair, part middle school talent show. It was utterly delightful." — Devansh Mehta

Manifest Night Market

Friday, June 6 · 7–10 PM @ Lighthaven 🌙
Free and open to the community

The Night Market is back for the third year, an open-air evening celebration of all things markets. It’s a chance to meet people, share ideas, see strange gadgets, and wander around in a transcendent twilight. A Very Bay Area World’s Fair and, if you will, an attempt to manifest the futures.

Previous markets included but not limited to:

  • Job market: trade your skills for other skills, or find your next gig
  • Stuff market: arts, crafts, foods
  • Experience market: mini games, fortunes
  • Book market: got a book? essay? poem?
  • Information market: like a poster session, without the standards
  • Black market: naming rights to a baby's middle name, "probiotics", etc. (all goods must still be legal!)

Festival Season

Manifest is part of a week of connected events in the Bay. View the calendar →

Contact the Team

David Chee

David Chee

Head Organiser

david@manifest.is

Rachel

Rachel

Lead Organiser

rach@manifest.is

Austin Chen

Austin Chen

Advisor

austin@manifest.is

Want to sponsor Manifest 2025? Take a look at our sponsor prospectus.

Join the Discord!